Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darwin Blanch v Benjamin Bonzi

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darwin Blanch (Local)

Prediction 42.16%2.37fair odd

EV -2.60%

Edge -1.13%

Kelly -1.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.52%42.14%42.11%42.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.242.252.3145.45%44.66%44.44%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benjamin Bonzi (Visit)

Prediction 57.84%1.73fair odd

EV -2.83%

Edge -1.69%

Kelly -4.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.58%57.86%57.89%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.631.631.6862.50%61.38%61.54%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darwin Blanch (Local): 42.16%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visit): 57.84%. For Darwin Blanch (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -2.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -5.15%E -3.14%K -8.04%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-20 02:45
LowVig.ag🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.83%E -1.69%K -4.17%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-20 08:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.83%E -1.69%K -4.17%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-20 08:55
Pinnacle🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.03%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-04-20 08:55
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.03%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-04-19 20:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.73%E -3.51%K -9.09%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-20 02:45
PlayUp🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.73%E -3.51%K -9.09%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-20 08:40
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.88%E -4.28%K -11.28%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-20 00:40
BoyleSports🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.30%E -3.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-20 00:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.88%E -4.28%K -11.28%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 01:55
Coral🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.88%E -4.28%K -11.28%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 01:55
Betsson🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 02:44
NordicBet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 02:45
Everygame🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.46%E -4.66%K -12.44%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 08:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%	2.3%	2026-04-20 10:10