The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Corentin Moutet

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 39.54%2.53fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.464%
Kelly -0.774%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.88%39.61%39.60%41.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.382.5045.45%42.41%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corentin Moutet (Visit)

Prediction 60.46%1.65fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.44%60.39%60.40%61.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.571.6266.67%63.97%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 39.54%; Corentin Moutet (Visit): 60.46%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.16%E -0.464%K -0.774%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.86%E -2.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 23:39
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -2.35%E -0.950%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -3.26%E -2.04%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 23:40
DraftKings🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.72%E -1.96%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 23:20
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.11%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 23:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.11%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.11%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:39
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.11%E -2.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:30
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-24 02:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-24 02:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-24 02:30
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 23:39
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 23:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 23:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.09%E -3.02%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.09%E -5.33%K -15.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 23:29
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 22:44
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.07%E -3.94%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.26%E -2.04%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 23:30
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -11.04%E -4.91%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.26%E -2.04%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-24 00:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -13.02%E -5.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.30%E -6.20%K -18.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 23:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -13.02%E -5.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.30%E -6.20%K -18.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%1.49I 67.11%NM 59.62%12.6%2026-04-23 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 32.54%1.10I 90.91%NM 67.46%34.8%2026-04-24 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 32.54%1.10I 90.91%NM 67.46%34.8%2026-04-24 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 32.54%1.10I 90.91%NM 67.46%34.8%2026-04-24 00:20
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 33.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 66.04%38.9%2026-04-24 00:15