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Cristian Garin v Martin Damm Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cristian Garin (Local)
assuming max odds 1.43
Martin Damm Jr. (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cristian Garin (Local): 70.24%; Martin Damm Jr. (Visit): 29.76%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +4.15%E +1.19%K +1.66%G +0.069% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +1.18%E +0.347%K +0.491%G +0.006% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -10.09%E -7.88%K -36.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +1.18%E +0.347%K +0.491%G +0.006% | 7.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.98%E -6.09%K -25.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.80%E -0.544%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -10.79%E -8.50%K -39.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -3.28%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -1.66%E -1.19%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -8.34%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-21 09:01 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.70%E -4.72%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-21 08:57 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.70%E -4.72%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.90%EV +0.445%E +0.311%K +1.04%G +0.005% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.10%EV -14.00%E -4.84%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV +0.445%E +0.311%K +1.04%G +0.005% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -14.30%E -4.96%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV +0.445%E +0.311%K +1.04%G +0.005% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -14.30%E -4.96%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -14.30%E -4.96%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -0.257%E -0.181%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -16.68%E -5.96%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -3.07%E -2.22%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -19.65%E -7.28%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -5.17%E -3.83%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -19.65%E -7.28%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-21 09:01 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |