Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Flavio Cobolli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -0.489%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.255%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.08%34.00%34.05%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.762.752.9239.22%36.25%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flavio Cobolli (Visit)
Prediction 65.92%1.52fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -8.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.79%66.00%65.95%67.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.421.421.4672.99%70.34%70.18%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 34.08%; Flavio Cobolli (Visit): 65.92%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -0.489%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -0.489%E -0.168%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.82%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.17%E -0.404%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.76%E -2.57%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.17%E -0.404%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.73%E -4.01%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -1.17%E -0.404%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -9.69%E -7.07%K -26.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -1.51%E -0.523%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.85%E -0.643%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.71%E -5.51%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.87%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.73%E -4.01%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 02:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -3.56%E -1.26%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.06%EV -8.37%E -6.02%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 21:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.73%E -4.01%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.71%E -5.51%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 21:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.39%E -4.50%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.71%E -5.51%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.71%E -5.51%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.71%E -5.51%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.07%E -3.52%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -9.03%E -6.54%K -23.76%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.95%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -9.69%E -7.07%K -26.18%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 35.04% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.96% | 12.4% | 2026-04-23 23:44 |