The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Billy Harris v Daniel Merida Aguilar

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Billy Harris (Local)

Prediction 23.43%4.27fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.262%
Kelly -0.343%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.14%23.40%23.29%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.014.084.2228.57%24.95%24.54%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)

Prediction 76.57%1.31fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -7.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%76.60%76.71%77.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.231.2884.75%81.52%81.30%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Billy Harris (Local): 23.43%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 76.57%. For Billy Harris (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.22, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.22I 23.70%NM 22.85%EV -1.10%E -0.262%K -0.343%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.15%EV -4.29%E -3.43%K -17.17%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-20 11:55
PlayUp🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.57%E -0.375%K -0.492%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.59%E -5.40%K -29.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -2.28%E -0.546%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -5.06%E -4.08%K -21.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-20 11:51
BetOnline.ag🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -2.28%E -0.546%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -5.06%E -4.08%K -21.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-20 11:51
Betsson🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -2.75%E -0.662%K -0.872%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -9.65%E -8.18%K -53.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 11:55
NordicBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -2.75%E -0.662%K -0.872%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -9.65%E -8.18%K -53.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.26%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.06%E -4.08%K -21.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 20:30
Everygame🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.26%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.12%E -6.77%K -40.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 11:54
GTbets🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.90%EV -6.73%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.10%EV -4.29%E -3.43%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 20:30
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -10.95%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.59%E -5.40%K -29.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 11:54
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.12%E -3.23%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.59%E -5.40%K -29.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -17.98%E -5.14%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.00%E -1.56%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.90%3.0%2026-04-20 11:55