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Arthur Gea v Vilius Gaubas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Gea (Local)
assuming max odds 2.75
Vilius Gaubas (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.77
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Gea (Local): 36.79%; Vilius Gaubas (Visit): 63.21%. For Vilius Gaubas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -22.75%E -10.83%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +11.89%E +6.72%K +15.44%G +1.83% | 4.1% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -22.75%E -10.83%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +11.89%E +6.72%K +15.44%G +1.83% | 4.1% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -23.11%E -11.06%K -21.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV +10.62%E +6.07%K +14.16%G +1.50% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 07:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -20.91%E -9.72%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV +9.99%E +5.74%K +13.50%G +1.35% | 4.0% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -22.75%E -10.83%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +8.73%E +5.07%K +12.12%G +1.06% | 5.8% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -26.43%E -13.21%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV +7.46%E +4.39%K +10.66%G +0.795% | 8.8% | 2026-04-20 08:01 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -22.75%E -10.83%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +5.57%E +3.33%K +8.31%G +0.462% | 7.5% | 2026-04-20 08:13 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -15.39%E -6.69%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -0.756%E -0.481%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-20 08:12 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.35%E -1.67%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.34%E -5.75%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-20 08:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -9.87%E -4.03%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -8.34%E -5.75%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -0.675%E -0.250%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -8.97%E -6.23%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +1.16%E +0.424%K +0.666%G +0.008% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -10.24%E -7.21%K -24.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +1.16%E +0.424%K +0.666%G +0.008% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -11.50%E -8.22%K -28.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -2.51%E -0.949%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -11.50%E -8.22%K -28.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -2.51%E -0.949%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -11.50%E -8.22%K -28.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.66% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.34% | 7.4% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |