Language:English
Andrea Pellegrino v Martin Damm Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Andrea Pellegrino (Local)
assuming max odds 2.10
Martin Damm Jr. (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.95
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andrea Pellegrino (Local): 47.06%; Martin Damm Jr. (Visit): 52.94%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -11.06%E -5.85%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV +3.23%E +1.66%K +3.40%G +0.110% | 4.2% | 2026-04-20 07:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -9.17%E -4.75%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV +2.17%E +1.13%K +2.34%G +0.051% | 3.6% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -9.17%E -4.75%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV +0.057%E +0.030%K +0.064%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -9.17%E -4.75%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV +0.057%E +0.030%K +0.064%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -11.53%E -6.13%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -0.473%E -0.251%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -12.94%E -6.99%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -2.06%E -1.11%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 07:57 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.12%E -5.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.71%E -2.62%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-20 08:12 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.23%E -4.22%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.23%E -4.22%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.41%E -4.86%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.17%E -0.559%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -9.47%E -5.54%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -3.53%E -1.72%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -9.47%E -5.54%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-20 08:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -1.17%E -0.559%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.00%E -5.88%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-20 08:13 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -11.59%E -6.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 0.7% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |