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Aleksandar Vukic v Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Vukic (Local)
assuming max odds 4.89
Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.22
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 21.99%; Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit): 78.01%. For Aleksandar Vukic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.70%EV +7.55%E +1.54%K +1.94%G +0.147% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.30%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.20%EV +4.25%E +0.897%K +1.14%G +0.048% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.80%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-20 10:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.20%EV +4.25%E +0.897%K +1.14%G +0.048% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.80%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-20 10:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -1.02%E -0.228%K -0.293%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -9.51%E -8.20%K -59.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-20 10:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.27%EV -1.46%E -0.327%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.73%EV -5.61%E -4.64%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 10:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.76%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.42%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-20 10:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.52%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.39%E -5.33%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -8.72%E -2.10%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -7.95%E -6.74%K -44.19%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.56%EV -10.92%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.44%EV -7.95%E -6.74%K -44.19%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.56%EV -10.92%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.44%EV -7.95%E -6.74%K -44.19%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.02%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.83%E -3.96%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.02%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.83%E -3.96%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -16.42%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -4.83%E -3.96%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-20 10:24 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-04-20 10:25 |