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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Henrique Rocha
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)
assuming max odds 1.43
Henrique Rocha (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.45
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 68.02%; Henrique Rocha (Visit): 31.98%. For Henrique Rocha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.33%.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -11.57%E -8.90%K -38.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV +10.33%E +2.99%K +4.22%G +0.435% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 14:32 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.49%E -5.51%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.866%E -0.279%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.53%E -7.17%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -0.866%E -0.279%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.09%E -2.90%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.78%E -0.916%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.17%E -6.05%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.06%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.17%E -6.05%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.06%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.09%E -2.90%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -4.70%E -1.58%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -10.21%E -7.74%K -31.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.77%E -3.41%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.26%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 14:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -2.73%E -1.91%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -7.90%E -2.74%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 14:32 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.77%E -3.41%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 14:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.77%E -3.41%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 14:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -6.13%E -4.44%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.87%EV -3.41%E -2.40%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.13%EV -12.38%E -4.52%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 14:01 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.18% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 14:35 |