Language:English
Valentin Vacherot v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Prediction 39.51%2.53fair odd
EV -0.439%
Edge -0.174%
Kelly -0.289%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.72%39.54%39.55%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5243.48%41.72%41.67%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 60.49%1.65fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%60.46%60.45%61.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.561.561.6267.11%64.04%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 39.51%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 60.49%. For Valentin Vacherot (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.52, with an expected value of -0.439%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV -0.439%E -0.174%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV -3.21%E -2.01%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-10-02 02:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -3.20%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.21%E -2.01%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.20%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.82%E -2.40%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 03:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.20%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 01:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.20%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.20%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -3.60%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -3.99%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.39%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 03:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.39%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 01:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.78%E -1.99%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.42%E -2.80%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.78%E -1.99%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 02:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.29%EV -4.78%E -1.99%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.00%E -1.24%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 19:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.00%E -1.24%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 19:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.82%E -2.40%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-01 21:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.42%E -2.80%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -5.57%E -2.33%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -7.45%E -4.87%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.72%EV -5.57%E -2.33%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.28%EV -8.66%E -5.73%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-02 03:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.45%E -4.87%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-01 21:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.45%E -4.87%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.45%E -4.87%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-01 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.36%E -2.69%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.36%E -2.69%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.24%E -4.02%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.16%E -3.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.16%E -3.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.16%E -3.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.03%E -3.20%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.16%E -3.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.63%E -3.61%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 01:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.16%E -3.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.05%E -5.30%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 21:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.95%E -3.41%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%EV -9.26%E -6.18%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-02 03:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.13%E -3.97%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.00%E -1.24%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 03:21 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.13%E -3.97%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.21%E -2.01%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 22:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.13%E -3.97%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.42%E -2.80%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 21:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.13%E -3.97%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.69%EV -9.87%E -6.62%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-02 00:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 03:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 03:21 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |