Language:English
Valentin Vacherot v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd
EV +5.30%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.083%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%23.88%24.27%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.904.4027.78%25.41%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 76.07%1.31fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -6.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%76.12%75.73%77.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.251.2983.33%80.41%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 23.93%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 76.07%. For Valentin Vacherot (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +5.30%E +1.20%K +1.56%G +0.083% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 06:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.91%E +0.676%K +0.881%G +0.026% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.23%K -27.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-04 04:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +1.71%E +0.403%K +0.527%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 04:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +1.71%E +0.403%K +0.527%G +0.009% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 02:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +1.71%E +0.403%K +0.527%G +0.009% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.72%E -7.27%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 04:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.515%E +0.123%K +0.161%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 10:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -0.203%E -0.049%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-04 06:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.88%E -0.458%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 00:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.458%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 06:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.88%E -0.458%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 19:43 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.92%EV -3.31%E -0.820%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.08%EV -3.39%E -2.67%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -3.31%E -0.820%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 08:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -3.31%E -0.820%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 08:51 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.39%E -2.67%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-04 04:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 19:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.72%E -7.27%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.72%E -7.27%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 04:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.72%E -7.27%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 04:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.72%E -7.27%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 18:56 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.47%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 06:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.47%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 06:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.39%E -2.67%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 07:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.86%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.86%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-02 19:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-02 19:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 08:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.20%EV -9.78%E -2.59%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.80%EV -3.39%E -2.67%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 07:01 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 07:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 07:01 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 19:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 19:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -11.45%E -3.09%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.36%EV -7.96%E -6.58%K -37.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.84%E -3.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.84%E -3.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.84%E -3.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 06:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.84%E -3.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 06:56 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 0.2% | 2026-10-04 07:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 06:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 06:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 06:25 |