Language:English
Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local)
Prediction 27.60%3.62fair odd
EV -0.623%
Edge -0.173%
Kelly -0.240%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.83%27.69%27.59%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.62%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 72.40%1.38fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -8.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%72.31%72.41%73.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.311.321.3479.37%76.28%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local): 27.60%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 72.40%. For Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.623%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -0.623%E -0.173%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-30 10:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.52%EV -2.56%E -0.724%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.48%EV -2.99%E -2.23%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.38%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 20:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.38%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.38%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 19:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.38%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 00:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.38%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 14:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.66%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 03:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.66%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 03:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 10:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 03:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -5.59%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 03:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-29 11:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 09:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 03:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 08:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 09:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 10:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 06:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 12:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 07:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 07:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 07:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 07:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.28%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.61%E -5.12%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-30 09:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.28%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.61%E -5.12%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-30 09:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.28%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -8.78%E -6.97%K -33.78%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 10:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 10:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -11.67%E -3.65%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 02:10 |