Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Casper Ruud
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 33.90%2.95fair odd
EV +5.10%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.124%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%33.75%33.81%35.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.823.1038.17%35.23%35.46%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Casper Ruud (Visit)
Prediction 66.10%1.51fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -7.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.48%66.25%66.19%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.421.4675.76%70.59%70.42%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 33.90%; Casper Ruud (Visit): 66.10%. For Luciano Darderi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +5.10%E +1.65%K +2.43%G +0.124% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 02:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV -1.000%E -0.342%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 01:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.68%E -0.579%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.50%E -2.40%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -1.68%E -0.579%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.72%EV -12.75%E -9.66%K -39.85%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.36%E -0.818%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.69%E -0.939%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -2.69%E -0.939%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-01 01:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -3.37%E -1.18%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -3.50%E -2.40%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.37%E -1.18%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.37%E -1.18%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.37%E -1.18%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.80%E -4.83%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.71%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.71%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.71%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -3.71%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.39%E -1.56%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 00:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.65%EV -4.39%E -1.56%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.35%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.07%E -1.81%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.07%E -1.81%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 00:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -5.41%E -1.94%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 11:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 01:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 01:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 01:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.85%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 01:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-29 09:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-29 09:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.14%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -10.15%E -3.83%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.50%E -2.40%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-29 09:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -10.15%E -3.83%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.50%E -2.40%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-29 09:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.08%EV -10.15%E -3.83%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.92%EV -9.45%E -6.90%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.17%E -4.26%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |