Language:English
Kyrian Jacquet v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kyrian Jacquet (Local)
Prediction 44.35%2.26fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.29%44.30%45.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.152.2148.78%46.85%46.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 55.65%1.80fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.38%55.71%55.70%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.701.701.7663.29%58.76%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyrian Jacquet (Local): 44.35%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 55.65%. For Kyrian Jacquet (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -2.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.00%E -0.904%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.60%E -1.49%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -2.05%E -1.16%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-01 09:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.95%E -6.85%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.77%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 06:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-01 21:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 17:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 17:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 06:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 19:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 07:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 06:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 07:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 07:21 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -12.07%E -7.64%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.99%E -2.82%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 07:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 00:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 00:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 21:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 23:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 23:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 23:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 00:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 21:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 21:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 01:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -7.32%E -3.50%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 07:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.02%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -9.84%E -6.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-01 15:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-10-02 07:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-10-02 07:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-10-02 07:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 07:45 |