Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Sho Shimabukuro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 72.29%1.38fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -4.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.32%72.10%72.33%74.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.311.311.3681.30%76.57%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)
Prediction 27.71%3.61fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.311%
Kelly +0.429%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.96%27.90%27.67%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.413.403.6532.79%29.31%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 72.29%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 27.71%. For Sho Shimabukuro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -7.47%E -5.83%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.74%E -5.23%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.249%E -0.069%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.63%E -0.461%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -1.63%E -0.461%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 07:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -2.47%E -0.701%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 07:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -2.47%E -0.701%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 07:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 07:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.71%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.29%EV -3.30%E -0.945%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 06:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -3.57%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 07:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -4.13%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 05:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.41%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.41%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.56%EV -10.36%E -8.35%K -43.16%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -4.41%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -2.41%E -1.78%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-01 06:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -5.24%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 05:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.19%E -6.45%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 06:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.19%E -6.45%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 07:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.43%EV -11.08%E -9.01%K -48.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.18%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 00:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.18%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 02:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 06:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 03:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 06:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 20:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 01:48 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 01:48 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 21:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.68%E -1.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.10%E -4.55%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.68%E -1.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.10%E -4.55%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.68%E -1.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.10%E -4.55%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -2.41%E -1.78%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -15.49%E -5.08%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -2.41%E -1.78%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -15.49%E -5.08%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-10-01 07:45 |