Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 91.05%1.10fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -36.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.64%90.97%91.21%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.041.0799.01%95.59%96.15%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)
Prediction 8.95%11.18fair odd
EV +34.22%
Edge +2.28%
Kelly +2.44%
Growth +0.836%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.54%9.03%8.79%12.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.3010.3310.8215.0013.70%9.68%9.24%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 91.05%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 8.95%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.18. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%EV +34.22%E +2.28%K +2.44%G +0.836% | 1.9% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +16.32%E +1.26%K +1.36%G +0.222% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.76%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 11.80I 8.47%NM 8.24%EV +5.59%E +0.473%K +0.517%G +0.029% | 2.8% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +2.90%E +0.252%K +0.276%G +0.008% | 3.0% | 2026-10-03 04:21 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 03:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 19:32 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 16:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 02:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 02:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 02:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 02:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -8.04%E -7.96%K -803.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -1.57%E -0.143%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.87%EV -2.57%E -2.41%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 10.65I 9.39%NM 9.13%EV -4.70%E -0.442%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-02 22:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -6.05%E -0.576%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -6.05%E -0.576%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -8.28%E -0.808%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 00:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.67%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV -8.73%E -0.856%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 10:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -10.52%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -10.52%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -10.52%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -10.52%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 04:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -10.52%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 19:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.22%E -6.04%K -207.22%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -12.76%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -14.99%E -1.58%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.31%E -5.10%K -132.65%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.99%E -1.58%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -6.22%E -6.04%K -207.22%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV -14.99%E -1.58%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -2.57%E -2.41%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV -16.25%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 04:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -2.57%E -2.41%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV -16.25%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 04:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.48%E -3.29%K -58.08%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -19.47%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 03:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -19.47%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -19.47%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-02 10:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.94%E -2.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 03:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.94%E -2.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 03:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.94%E -2.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 03:36 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.94%E -2.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 04:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -28.42%E -3.55%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 10:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.40%E -4.19%K -87.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -28.42%E -3.55%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 10:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 87.64%EV -6.22%E -6.04%K -207.22%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.36%EV -34.68%E -4.75%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-03 04:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 04:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |