Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 76.50%1.31fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%76.51%76.48%78.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.231.2984.75%81.09%81.30%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jiri Lehecka (Visit)
Prediction 23.50%4.26fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.511%
Kelly +0.664%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%23.49%23.52%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.064.034.3527.03%24.64%24.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 76.50%; Jiri Lehecka (Visit): 23.50%. For Jiri Lehecka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +2.22%E +0.511%K +0.664%G +0.015% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +1.05%E +0.244%K +0.318%G +0.003% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.73%E -8.25%K -54.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +1.05%E +0.244%K +0.318%G +0.003% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 14:11 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.127%E -0.030%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.127%E -0.030%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 14:41 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -41.00%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -0.127%E -0.030%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 12:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.30%E -0.310%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -2.01%E -0.481%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 15:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.48%E -0.597%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.48%EV -2.84%E -2.24%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.52%EV -2.95%E -0.713%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.91%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.09%EV -2.95%E -0.713%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.65%E -0.891%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.65%E -0.891%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.46%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.54%EV -4.59%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -5.30%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 14:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -5.30%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 14:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 12:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -41.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -41.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.18%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.00%EV -9.73%E -8.25%K -54.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -7.18%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.35%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.35%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.53%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.53%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.31%E -1.02%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 15:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 12:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 12:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.67%E -5.47%K -30.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -13.05%E -3.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -13.05%E -3.53%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |