Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 82.30%1.22fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -16.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.58%82.29%82.42%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1890.09%86.66%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 17.70%5.65fair odd
EV +6.21%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.73%17.71%17.58%20.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.185.106.0021.74%19.30%19.61%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 82.30%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 17.70%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.83%E -6.99%K -65.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +6.21%E +1.04%K +1.24%G +0.077% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV +2.67%E +0.461%K +0.557%G +0.015% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.84%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 17.16%EV +0.019%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-01 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 06:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 04:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 02:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -8.65%E -7.79%K -78.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -2.64%E -0.479%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.50%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.50%EV -3.17%E -0.579%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 07:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.40%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.60%EV -3.88%E -0.714%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-01 07:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.40%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.60%EV -3.88%E -0.714%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-01 07:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -4.41%E -0.816%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -6.18%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -6.18%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 07:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.06%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.06%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 07:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -7.95%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 06:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -7.95%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -7.95%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 11:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -9.72%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.71%E -3.17%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 06:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 07:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.53%E -3.91%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 14:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 07:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.36%E -4.66%K -35.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 06:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 07:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 07:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 07:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.18%E -5.42%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.49%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 06:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.38%EV -8.65%E -7.79%K -78.63%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.62%EV -14.14%E -2.92%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-01 07:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.62%EV -7.00%E -6.20%K -53.88%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -16.80%E -3.57%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-29 08:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -2.89%E -2.45%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -18.57%E -4.04%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -2.89%E -2.45%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -18.57%E -4.04%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 14:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-10-01 07:20 |