Language:English
Brandon Nakashima v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brandon Nakashima (Local)
Prediction 66.11%1.51fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -5.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.38%66.16%66.19%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.431.4774.07%70.21%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 33.89%2.95fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.595%
Kelly -0.909%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%33.84%33.81%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.802.812.9037.04%35.74%35.59%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 66.11%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 33.89%. For Ugo Humbert (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -2.81%E -1.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV -2.40%E -0.835%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -3.48%E -2.38%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.14%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.76%E -1.32%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.14%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.76%E -1.32%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.14%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.76%E -1.32%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 01:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.14%E -2.85%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.12%E -1.83%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.74%E -0.956%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%EV -4.78%E -1.70%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 01:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.12%E -1.83%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 20:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 01:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 14:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 01:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:46 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:46 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.12%E -1.83%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 01:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -3.76%E -1.32%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.12%E -1.83%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 20:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.78%E -4.81%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.42%E -1.20%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -6.78%E -4.81%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-30 14:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.73%E -0.595%K -0.909%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 20:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.74%E -0.956%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.74%E -0.956%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 14:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.81%E -2.48%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 15:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.44%E -5.32%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-30 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.83%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.02%EV -4.44%E -1.57%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-30 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -8.10%E -5.83%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -5.12%E -1.83%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 01:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.76%E -6.35%K -23.06%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-30 14:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -10.75%E -7.96%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -8.50%E -3.15%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 01:55 |