Language:English
Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fils (Local)
Prediction 68.08%1.47fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.22%68.33%68.13%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.371.381.4478.13%72.84%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 31.92%3.13fair odd
EV +8.54%
Edge +2.51%
Kelly +3.56%
Growth +0.304%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%31.67%31.87%34.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.063.003.4037.04%32.69%33.33%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fils (Local): 68.08%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 31.92%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +8.54%E +2.51%K +3.56%G +0.304% | 4.6% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +6.95%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.205% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +5.35%E +1.62%K +2.33%G +0.124% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +5.35%E +1.62%K +2.33%G +0.124% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +5.35%E +1.62%K +2.33%G +0.124% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -8.10%E -6.00%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV +1.52%E +0.478%K +0.697%G +0.011% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.11%EV -12.86%E -10.05%K -45.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.562%E +0.178%K +0.261%G +0.001% | 9.9% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.03%E -0.334%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 09:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -10.14%E -7.68%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -1.03%E -0.334%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 00:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -2.31%E -0.755%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -2.63%E -0.862%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -2.63%E -0.862%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -5.37%E -3.87%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -2.95%E -0.970%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.79%EV -1.97%E -1.37%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.21%EV -3.27%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-02 09:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -5.37%E -3.87%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -3.27%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 09:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-02 09:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 00:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.46%E -7.11%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -4.23%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 09:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -4.87%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.82%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.82%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.06%E -4.39%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.82%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 09:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%EV -6.74%E -4.92%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -6.14%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -3.33%E -2.35%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -6.46%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-02 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -3.33%E -2.35%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -6.46%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-02 09:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.01%E -2.85%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -6.46%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.42%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.42%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.42%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 09:32 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.42%E -5.45%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.42%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 09:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.42%E -5.45%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -2.65%E -1.85%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -9.02%E -3.16%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.61%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 09:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.61%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.61%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.61%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.97%E -1.37%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.21%E -4.44%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 09:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -1.97%E -1.37%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -1.97%E -1.37%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 09:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 09:35 |