Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.688%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.64%29.42%29.64%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.153.4534.48%31.54%31.75%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 70.53%1.42fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -7.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.76%70.58%70.36%72.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.351.3878.13%74.53%74.07%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 29.47%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 70.53%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV +1.69%E +0.489%K +0.688%G +0.012% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -5.50%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 04:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.64%EV +1.10%E +0.320%K +0.451%G +0.005% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.36%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +0.212%E +0.062%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 04:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -1.26%E -0.377%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-30 04:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -1.26%E -0.377%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 04:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -1.26%E -0.377%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.91%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 04:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -1.56%E -0.466%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 03:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -1.56%E -0.466%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 03:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.74%E -0.829%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.91%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.74%E -0.829%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.91%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 04:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.74%E -0.829%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 04:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.74%E -0.829%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.61%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.39%EV -2.67%E -1.94%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 03:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.91%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 04:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.68%E -1.78%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 11:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.68%E -1.78%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.68%E -1.78%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -6.27%E -1.97%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 21:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 02:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 03:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:48 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.82%EV -7.75%E -2.47%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 02:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -8.04%E -2.58%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 04:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.63%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 03:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.63%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 15:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.63%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.50%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 03:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.63%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 13:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-29 11:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-29 21:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-29 21:18 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-29 11:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-29 23:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -11.58%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.73%E -7.60%K -34.74%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -14.53%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -2.67%E -1.94%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 14:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -14.53%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -2.67%E -1.94%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 14:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-09-30 04:25 |