Language:English
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)
Prediction 58.46%1.71fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.29%58.43%58.44%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.6764.52%61.82%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Berrettini (Visit)
Prediction 41.54%2.41fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%41.57%41.56%42.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.272.282.3646.08%44.12%43.86%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 58.46%; Matteo Berrettini (Visit): 41.54%. For Matteo Berrettini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.38%E -1.42%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 06:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -2.96%E -1.78%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -2.37%E -1.01%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-01 08:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 05:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 09:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -7.77%E -3.50%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.13%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.96%E -0.829%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-01 08:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.13%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.96%E -0.829%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-01 08:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.13%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 07:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.13%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.13%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 08:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.86%E -2.12%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 08:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.86%E -2.12%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 08:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.28%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 08:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 06:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 09:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 08:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 08:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -4.86%E -2.12%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 09:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-01 09:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.55%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -6.11%E -2.70%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 09:08 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 08:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 08:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 06:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 08:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 09:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.27%EV -8.81%E -5.65%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.73%EV -5.70%E -2.51%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 08:58 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%EV -8.81%E -5.65%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.82%EV -9.85%E -4.54%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-01 07:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.45%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 06:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-01 06:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-10-01 09:20 |