Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zsombor Piros v Henrique Rocha

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zsombor Piros (Local)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd

EV -3.40%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -4.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.63%53.37%53.25%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.761.751.8158.82%56.82%57.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henrique Rocha (Visit)

Prediction 46.63%2.14fair odd

EV -4.40%

Edge -2.15%

Kelly -4.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.91%46.63%46.75%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.972.012.002.0550.76%49.65%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zsombor Piros (Local): 53.37%; Henrique Rocha (Visit): 46.63%. For Zsombor Piros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -3.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -3.40%E -1.88%K -4.20%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -4.40%E -2.15%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-04 11:15
LowVig.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.94%E -2.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.40%E -2.15%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-04 07:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.94%E -2.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.40%E -2.15%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-04 07:10
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.94%E -2.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-04 11:35
GTbets🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.47%E -2.50%K -5.66%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.34%E -2.63%K -5.18%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-04 06:45
PlayUp🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.01%E -2.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-04 06:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-04 06:49
Coral🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-04 06:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.14%E -4.10%K -9.65%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.40%E -2.15%K -4.19%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-04 06:49
BoyleSports🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 06:45
NordicBet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 09:35
Betsson🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 09:35
Marathon Bet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -8.13%E -4.13%K -8.39%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-04 07:34
Everygame🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.28%E -5.46%K -13.25%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.73%E -3.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 11:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%	2.2%	2026-05-04 11:15