The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Stefano Travaglia v Stan Wawrinka

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stefano Travaglia (Local)

Prediction 53.78%1.86fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.24%53.81%53.95%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.751.8158.82%57.42%57.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stan Wawrinka (Visit)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.50%46.19%46.05%47.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.002.1251.28%49.31%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefano Travaglia (Local): 53.78%; Stan Wawrinka (Visit): 46.22%. For Stan Wawrinka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -2.65%E -1.46%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -8.49%E -4.29%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 20:30
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.26%E -2.40%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.95%E -1.40%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-04 09:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -5.34%E -3.03%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -2.48%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -5.34%E -3.03%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -2.48%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 09:55
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.88%E -3.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-04 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.88%E -3.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.57%E -3.78%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.88%E -3.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.57%E -3.78%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 09:20
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.88%E -3.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.57%E -3.78%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 09:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.42%E -3.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.26%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 09:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -6.95%E -4.02%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -8.95%E -4.55%K -9.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 09:25
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -8.57%E -5.04%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -2.02%E -0.954%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 09:55
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.57%E -5.04%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.57%E -3.78%K -7.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 09:05
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -8.57%E -5.04%K -12.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.88%E -5.07%K -10.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-04 09:55
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -8.57%E -5.04%K -12.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.88%E -5.07%K -10.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-04 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-05-04 09:50