Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shintaro Mochizuki v Jacob Fearnley

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shintaro Mochizuki (Local)

Prediction 37.20%2.69fair odd

EV -2.55%

Edge -0.973%

Kelly -1.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.47%41.31%37.50%58.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.652.422.502.6260.61%41.34%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Fearnley (Visit)

Prediction 62.80%1.59fair odd

EV +45.71%

Edge +19.70%

Kelly +34.63%

Growth +15.83%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.56%58.69%62.50%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.561.472.3269.44%64.01%68.03%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shintaro Mochizuki (Local): 37.20%; Jacob Fearnley (Visit): 62.80%. For Jacob Fearnley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +45.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -38.63%E -23.41%K -59.43%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV +45.71%E +19.70%K +34.63%G +15.83%	3.7%	2026-05-04 13:45
Betway🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.29%E -1.27%K -2.06%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.79%E -3.86%K -11.59%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-04 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.79%E -3.86%K -11.59%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-04 13:55
Fliff🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.73%E -4.47%K -7.67%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.05%E -4.76%K -14.68%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-04 13:55
Betsson🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.87%E -3.62%K -6.12%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.68%E -5.22%K -16.33%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 13:55
NordicBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.87%E -3.62%K -6.12%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.68%E -5.22%K -16.33%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.55%E -0.973%K -1.57%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.56%E -6.64%K -21.73%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-04 13:55
Coral🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.29%E -1.27%K -2.06%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.56%E -6.64%K -21.73%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-04 13:55
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.56%E -6.64%K -21.73%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-04 13:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.21%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%	8.3%	2026-05-04 13:55