The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Pedro Martinez v Jesper De Jong

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 08:19 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pedro Martinez (Local)

Prediction 34.19%2.92fair odd
EV -0.841%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.442%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%34.38%33.89%39.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.632.682.9042.19%38.01%37.31%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jesper De Jong (Visit)

Prediction 65.81%1.52fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.46%65.62%66.11%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.461.481.5572.99%68.42%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pedro Martinez (Local): 34.19%; Jesper De Jong (Visit): 65.81%. For Jesper De Jong (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -18.96%E -8.00%K -13.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV +2.00%E +1.29%K +3.64%G +0.073%6.7%2026-05-04 08:15
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.96%EV -10.76%E -4.12%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.04%EV +0.685%E +0.448%K +1.29%G +0.009%3.7%2026-05-04 08:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -18.96%E -8.00%K -13.84%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV +0.685%E +0.448%K +1.29%G +0.009%7.6%2026-05-04 08:15
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -14.52%E -5.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +0.027%E +0.018%K +0.052%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 07:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -8.36%E -3.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -1.95%E -1.31%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-04 07:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -8.36%E -3.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -1.95%E -1.31%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-04 07:59
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -13.15%E -5.18%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -2.61%E -1.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 07:59
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -12.81%E -5.02%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.58%E -3.16%K -10.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-04 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.55%E -4.62%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-04 08:15
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.841%E -0.290%K -0.442%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.87%E -5.62%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-04 08:15
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.87%E -5.62%K -19.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-04 08:15
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -9.84%E -7.19%K -26.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 08:15
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -9.84%E -7.19%K -26.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82%2.5%2026-05-04 08:15