The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pablo Llamas Ruiz v Henrique Rocha

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local)

Prediction 16.42%6.09fair odd
EV +47.78%
Edge +5.31%
Kelly +5.97%
Growth +2.85%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%18.33%15.59%33.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.705.254.809.0037.04%19.05%20.83%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henrique Rocha (Visit)

Prediction 83.58%1.20fair odd
EV +18.68%
Edge +13.16%
Kelly +44.49%
Growth +8.31%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.01%81.67%84.41%89.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.181.141.4293.46%84.51%87.72%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local): 16.42%; Henrique Rocha (Visit): 83.58%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -49.92%E -16.37%K -24.35%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV +18.68%E +13.16%K +44.49%G +8.31%3.2%2026-05-04 15:45
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -55.67%E -20.62%K -32.75%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV +16.18%E +11.64%K +41.48%G +6.71%9.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -24.47%E -5.32%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -1.38%E -1.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 15:55
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -21.19%E -4.41%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -2.21%E -1.89%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 15:55
BoyleSports🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -21.19%E -4.41%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -4.72%E -4.14%K -33.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 15:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +6.73%E +1.04%K +1.22%G +0.082%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.06%E -7.33%K -80.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 15:55
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -3.12%E -0.529%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.41%EV -8.90%E -8.16%K -98.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 15:55
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -3.12%E -0.529%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.41%EV -8.90%E -8.16%K -98.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 15:55
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +47.78%E +5.31%K +5.97%G +2.85%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -10.57%E -9.88%K -150.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-04 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%7.4%2026-05-04 15:54