Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luca Van Assche v Hugo Dellien

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luca Van Assche (Local)

Prediction 57.90%1.73fair odd

EV +0.165%

Edge +0.095%

Kelly +0.226%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.62%57.67%57.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.521.641.651.7365.79%60.87%60.61%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hugo Dellien (Visit)

Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd

EV +1.04%

Edge +0.434%

Kelly +0.745%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.39%42.33%42.31%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.202.212.4050.00%45.41%45.25%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luca Van Assche (Local): 57.90%; Hugo Dellien (Visit): 42.10%. For Hugo Dellien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -9.68%E -6.20%K -17.28%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +1.04%E +0.434%K +0.745%G +0.008%	5.8%	2026-05-04 10:09
LowVig.ag🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -1.90%E -0.817%K -1.43%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-05-04 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -1.90%E -0.817%K -1.43%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-05-04 10:02
Betsson🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -11.99%E -7.89%K -23.06%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -3.17%E -1.38%K -2.44%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-04 10:09
GTbets🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.62%E -3.45%K -8.93%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -3.59%E -1.57%K -2.78%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-04 09:55
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.22%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-04 10:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -1.57%E -0.925%K -2.25%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -6.54%E -2.94%K -5.36%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-04 10:05
PlayUp🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.38%E -3.35%K -6.15%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-04 10:01
Coral🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.48%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-04 10:09
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.36%E -4.60%K -12.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.48%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-04 10:05
Marathon Bet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%EV -5.62%E -3.45%K -8.93%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 43.58%EV -11.17%E -5.29%K -10.06%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-04 09:54
Everygame🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -11.59%E -5.52%K -10.53%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-04 09:57
BoyleSports🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV +0.165%E +0.095%K +0.226%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -15.80%E -7.90%K -15.80%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV +0.165%E +0.095%K +0.226%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -15.80%E -7.90%K -15.80%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 10:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.61%	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%	7.7%	2026-05-04 10:10