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Leandro Riedi v Vilius Gaubas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Leandro Riedi (Local)
assuming max odds 3.22
Vilius Gaubas (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leandro Riedi (Local): 31.23%; Vilius Gaubas (Visit): 68.77%. For Leandro Riedi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.558%.
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV +0.558%E +0.173%K +0.251%G +0.001% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -5.78%E -4.22%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-04 10:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV -3.81%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -4.41%E -3.17%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-04 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV -3.81%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -4.41%E -3.17%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-04 09:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.28%EV -5.06%E -1.67%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -9.22%E -6.99%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 09:57 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.10%E -3.69%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 10:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.10%E -3.69%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 10:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.47%E -4.76%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 10:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.47%E -4.76%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 10:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.53%E -6.42%K -25.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 09:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -9.44%E -3.25%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.16%E -5.30%K -20.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.06%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.47%E -4.76%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 10:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -10.37%E -3.61%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.72%E -2.66%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-04 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -11.00%E -3.86%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -7.16%E -5.30%K -20.46%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 10:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 1.2% | 2026-05-04 10:10 |