Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria v Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria (Local)

Prediction 37.17%2.69fair odd

EV +2.22%

Edge +0.807%

Kelly +1.27%

Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.05%39.62%35.32%57.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.672.502.602.7559.88%40.06%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit)

Prediction 62.83%1.59fair odd

EV +42.62%

Edge +18.78%

Kelly +33.56%

Growth +14.31%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.39%60.38%64.68%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.531.442.2770.42%65.42%69.44%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 37.17%; Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit): 62.83%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +42.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -37.93%E -22.71%K -56.61%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV +42.62%E +18.78%K +33.56%G +14.31%	3.9%	2026-05-05 14:34
Bet Victor🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -21.94%E -10.45%K -19.95%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV +6.81%E +4.01%K +9.73%G +0.663%	6.4%	2026-05-05 14:43
FanDuel🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -18.23%E -8.28%K -15.19%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV +1.78%E +1.10%K +2.88%G +0.051%	7.2%	2026-05-05 14:45
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.53%E -4.85%K -8.36%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -3.87%E -2.53%K -7.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-05 14:45
Paddy Power🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.07%E -2.83%K -4.72%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.51%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-05 14:38
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +2.22%E +0.807%K +1.27%G +0.028%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.90%E -6.14%K -19.77%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-05 14:45
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.22%E +0.807%K +1.27%G +0.028%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.53%E -6.61%K -21.65%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 14:45
Coral🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.61%E -0.998%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.53%E -6.61%K -21.65%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-05 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.61%E -0.998%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.53%E -6.61%K -21.65%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-05 14:45
TAB🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.10%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.53%E -6.61%K -21.65%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-05 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +2.22%E +0.807%K +1.27%G +0.028%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -10.78%E -7.59%K -25.67%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-05 14:45
theScore Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV +0.360%E +0.133%K +0.212%G +0.001%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -10.78%E -7.59%K -25.67%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-05 14:45
NordicBet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.10%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.78%E -7.59%K -25.67%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 14:45
Betsson🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.10%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.78%E -7.59%K -25.67%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 14:45
Fliff🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.10%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.78%E -7.59%K -25.67%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 14:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.80I 35.71%NM 35.63%	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.37%	0.2%	2026-05-05 14:45
Smarkets◎	2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%	0.4%	2026-05-05 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%	0.6%	2026-05-05 14:45
Novig◎	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%	3.7%	2026-05-05 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%	8.0%	2026-05-05 14:45