Language:English
Federico Coria v Alexander Blockx
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Federico Coria (Local)
Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV +3.65%
Edge +0.807%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 4.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%22.84%23.08%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.144.104.5226.67%24.16%24.39%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Blockx (Visit)
Prediction 77.07%1.30fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -14.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.45%77.16%76.92%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.231.2583.33%81.42%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Federico Coria (Local): 22.93%; Alexander Blockx (Visit): 77.07%. For Federico Coria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.53%EV +3.65%E +0.807%K +1.04%G +0.038% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.47%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 03:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV +3.19%E +0.709%K +0.911%G +0.029% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-06 21:12 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +3.19%E +0.709%K +0.911%G +0.029% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.896%E +0.204%K +0.264%G +0.002% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-07 03:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.75%EV +0.667%E +0.152%K +0.197%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.25%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.40%E -0.325%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -1.40%E -0.325%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -2.09%E -0.488%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -2.09%E -0.488%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -2.54%E -0.599%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 22:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.54%E -0.599%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.66%E -2.93%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-06 21:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 03:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.69%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -4.84%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 03:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:02 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:03 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.52%E -6.26%K -37.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -7.13%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 21:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.66%E -2.93%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 06:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 21:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 22:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 21:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 21:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.28%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 21:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -9.42%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.43%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -10.57%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -10.57%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.21%E -4.23%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 21:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-06 22:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.01%E -3.74%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-06 21:27 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 05:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 05:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 05:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 04:55 |
| Novig◎ | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.20% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.80% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 05:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 02:15 |