The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Elmer Moller v Nikoloz Basilashvili

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elmer Moller (Local)

Prediction 51.68%1.94fair odd
EV +16.27%
Edge +7.23%
Kelly +13.02%
Growth +2.12%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%50.08%51.68%54.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.931.852.2557.80%51.81%53.91%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nikoloz Basilashvili (Visit)

Prediction 48.32%2.07fair odd
EV -0.935%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -0.891%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.77%49.92%48.32%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.831.862.0561.73%54.68%53.62%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elmer Moller (Local): 51.68%; Nikoloz Basilashvili (Visit): 48.32%. For Elmer Moller (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV +16.27%E +7.23%K +13.02%G +2.12%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -18.82%E -11.20%K -27.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV +8.52%E +4.06%K +7.74%G +0.660%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -21.71%E -13.40%K -35.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-04 15:45
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +5.94%E +2.90%K +5.65%G +0.335%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -17.85%E -10.50%K -25.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -1.30%E -0.680%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -11.57%E -6.32%K -13.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.77%E -2.96%K -6.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-04 15:55
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.18%E -4.31%K -9.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-04 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.18%E -4.31%K -9.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-04 15:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -10.60%E -6.13%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -0.935%E -0.456%K -0.891%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%0.6%2026-05-04 15:54