Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dusan Lajovic v Jan Choinski

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

60%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dusan Lajovic (Local)

Prediction 59.71%1.67fair odd

EV -2.67%

Edge -1.64%

Kelly -4.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.84%59.91%59.43%61.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.571.561.6365.36%63.84%64.10%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jan Choinski (Visit)

Prediction 40.29%2.48fair odd

EV +2.33%

Edge +0.916%

Kelly +1.51%

Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.20%40.09%40.57%41.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.352.302.5444.44%42.53%43.38%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dusan Lajovic (Local): 59.71%; Jan Choinski (Visit): 40.29%. For Jan Choinski (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -6.25%E -3.98%K -10.96%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV +2.33%E +0.916%K +1.51%G +0.035%	3.1%	2026-05-04 10:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -6.25%E -3.98%K -10.96%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV +2.33%E +0.916%K +1.51%G +0.035%	3.1%	2026-05-04 10:10
Pinnacle🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.06%E -3.18%K -8.57%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.30%E -0.530%K -0.895%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-04 10:05
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.44%E -4.80%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.31%E -1.38%K -2.37%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-04 10:09
Everygame🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.64%E -5.65%K -16.30%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -5.33%E -2.27%K -3.95%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-04 10:05
GTbets🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -2.67%E -1.64%K -4.23%G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -6.13%E -2.63%K -4.61%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-04 09:59
Marathon Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -8.64%E -5.65%K -16.30%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.84%EV -6.94%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-04 10:03
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.46%E -2.79%K -7.43%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.34%E -3.19%K -5.65%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-04 10:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.06%E -3.18%K -8.57%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.34%E -3.19%K -5.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-04 10:05
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.25%E -3.98%K -10.96%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.34%E -3.19%K -5.65%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-04 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.44%E -4.80%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.34%E -3.19%K -5.65%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 10:05
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.44%E -4.80%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.34%E -3.19%K -5.65%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 10:05
Betsson🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.44%E -4.80%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.48%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-04 10:05
NordicBet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.44%E -4.80%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.48%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-04 10:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%	2.5%	2026-05-04 10:10