Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic v Federico Bondioli

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

92%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Prediction 91.55%1.09fair odd

EV +1.62%

Edge +1.46%

Kelly +14.75%

Growth +0.239%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.19%91.08%92.10%94.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.051.031.1199.01%95.24%97.09%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Federico Bondioli (Visit)

Prediction 8.45%11.84fair odd

EV +52.16%

Edge +2.90%

Kelly +3.07%

Growth +1.60%

assuming max odds 18.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.51%8.92%7.90%15.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.7010.2310.0018.0117.54%9.77%10.00%5.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dino Prizmic (Local): 91.55%; Federico Bondioli (Visit): 8.45%. For Federico Bondioli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.84. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +52.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 94.49%EV -3.87%E -3.69%K -77.42%G +0.000%	18.01I 5.55%NM 5.51%EV +52.16%E +2.90%K +3.07%G +1.60%	0.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betway🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -7.53%E -7.46%K -753.31%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +43.63%E +2.57%K +2.73%G +1.19%	4.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
BoyleSports🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.70%E -5.54%K -190.07%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +26.73%E +1.78%K +1.91%G +0.510%	3.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Coral🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.79%E -4.60%K -119.66%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +9.83%E +0.756%K +0.819%G +0.081%	3.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.70%E -5.54%K -190.07%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +9.83%E +0.756%K +0.819%G +0.081%	4.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.62%E -6.49%K -330.88%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +9.83%E +0.756%K +0.819%G +0.081%	5.7%	2026-05-05 12:25
FanDuel🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.70%E -5.54%K -190.07%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +1.38%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%	5.4%	2026-05-05 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.70%E -5.54%K -190.07%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +1.38%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%	5.4%	2026-05-05 12:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.70%E -5.54%K -190.07%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -7.06%E -0.642%K -0.706%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-05 12:25
Paddy Power🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.62%E -6.49%K -330.88%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.06%E -0.642%K -0.706%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-05 12:25
Fliff🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.19%EV -7.53%E -7.46%K -753.31%G +0.000%	10.45I 9.57%NM 8.81%EV -11.71%E -1.12%K -1.24%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-05 12:23
TAB🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -6.62%E -6.49%K -330.88%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -15.51%E -1.55%K -1.72%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betsson🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.07%EV -6.62%E -6.49%K -330.88%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 9.93%EV -21.85%E -2.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
NordicBet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.07%EV -6.62%E -6.49%K -330.88%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 9.93%EV -21.85%E -2.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
Bet Victor🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -2.96%E -2.79%K -49.26%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -32.41%E -4.05%K -4.63%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-05 12:23
ReBet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV +0.706%E +0.642%K +7.06%G +0.050%	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -39.17%E -5.44%K -6.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-05 10:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.54%EV +0.706%E +0.642%K +7.06%G +0.050%	7.07I 14.14%NM 13.46%EV -40.27%E -5.70%K -6.63%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 10:05
LowVig.ag🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.54%EV +0.706%E +0.642%K +7.06%G +0.050%	7.07I 14.14%NM 13.46%EV -40.27%E -5.70%K -6.63%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 10:04
GTbets🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.38%EV +1.62%E +1.46%K +14.75%G +0.239%	7.04I 14.20%NM 13.62%EV -40.52%E -5.76%K -6.71%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-05 11:20
PlayUp🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV +0.706%E +0.642%K +7.06%G +0.050%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -45.08%E -6.94%K -8.20%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-05 11:59
Everygame🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -1.12%E -1.04%K -14.06%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -45.08%E -6.94%K -8.20%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-05 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.58%EV -2.04%E -1.91%K -29.14%G +0.000%	6.35I 15.75%NM 14.42%EV -46.35%E -7.30%K -8.66%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-05 11:52
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 84.19%EV -2.04%E -1.91%K -29.14%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 15.81%EV -51.84%E -9.10%K -11.03%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-05 11:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99%	0.2%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99%	0.2%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%	16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%	0.6%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%	1.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 93.02%	13.33I 7.50%NM 6.98%	7.5%	2026-05-05 12:25