Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic v Chris Rodesch

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Prediction 80.69%1.24fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -20.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.61%80.70%80.34%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.1987.72%85.73%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chris Rodesch (Visit)

Prediction 19.31%5.18fair odd
EV +6.21%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%19.30%19.66%21.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.764.635.5023.26%20.99%21.62%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dino Prizmic (Local): 80.69%; Chris Rodesch (Visit): 19.31%. For Chris Rodesch (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.18. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +6.21%E +1.13%K +1.38%G +0.086%5.1%2026-05-04 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -5.59%E -4.78%K -32.91%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV +2.54%E +0.479%K +0.590%G +0.015%4.3%2026-05-04 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -5.59%E -4.78%K -32.91%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV +2.54%E +0.479%K +0.590%G +0.015%4.3%2026-05-04 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.62%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.60%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 18.38%EV +1.19%E +0.228%K +0.281%G +0.003%3.8%2026-05-04 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -9.24%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-04 13:40
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.31%EV -8.02%E -7.03%K -57.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -10.20%E -2.19%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-04 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.31%EV -8.02%E -7.03%K -57.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -10.20%E -2.19%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-04 13:55
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.98%E -3.35%K -20.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -11.17%E -2.43%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 13:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.17%E -2.43%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.10%E -2.91%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 13:50
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.10%E -2.91%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 13:55
Everygame🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -6.40%E -5.52%K -40.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.10%E -2.91%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 11:45
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.73%EV -5.59%E -4.78%K -32.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -16.38%E -3.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 13:55
Fliff🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -5.59%E -4.78%K -32.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -16.96%E -3.94%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.19I 84.03%NM 83.22%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-05-04 13:55