The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 80.13%1.25fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -6.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.47%80.37%80.40%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.161.161.2387.72%85.86%86.21%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)

Prediction 19.87%5.03fair odd
EV +9.27%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.191%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%19.63%19.60%21.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.784.705.5023.26%20.94%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 80.13%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 19.87%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.85%E -6.82%K -52.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +9.27%E +1.69%K +2.06%G +0.191%5.1%2026-05-05 08:48
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -8.65%E -7.59%K -61.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +4.30%E +0.820%K +1.01%G +0.044%6.8%2026-05-05 08:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -8.65%E -7.59%K -61.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +4.30%E +0.820%K +1.01%G +0.044%6.8%2026-05-05 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.664%E -0.133%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 08:55
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.65%E -7.59%K -61.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -0.664%E -0.133%K -0.166%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-05 08:55
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.64%E -0.966%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 08:50
theScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -4.64%E -0.966%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 08:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.26%EV -1.44%E -1.17%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74%EV -6.62%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-05 08:55
Fliff🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.85%E -6.82%K -52.32%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -7.62%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-05 08:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.60%E -2.36%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 08:45
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.60%E -2.36%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-05 08:55
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.60%E -2.36%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-05 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.32%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -11.59%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-05 08:55
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.32%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -11.59%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-05 08:55
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -14.57%E -3.39%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-05 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%0.2%2026-05-05 08:55
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-05-05 08:55
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%7.3%2026-05-05 08:55