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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Mackenzie McDonald
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
assuming max odds 1.23
Mackenzie McDonald (Visit)
assuming max odds 5.61
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 80.50%; Mackenzie McDonald (Visit): 19.50%. For Mackenzie McDonald (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.38%.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.87%EV -6.62%E -5.70%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.13%EV +9.38%E +1.67%K +2.04%G +0.191% | 4.0% | 2026-05-04 08:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.42%E -6.45%K -49.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +7.24%E +1.32%K +1.61%G +0.116% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.23%E -7.22%K -58.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -2.51%E -0.502%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.81%EV -5.01%E -4.24%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.19%EV -3.09%E -0.623%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.81%EV -5.01%E -4.24%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.19%EV -3.09%E -0.623%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -8.23%E -7.22%K -58.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 08:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.20%E -3.53%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 08:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.42%E -6.45%K -49.49%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.50%EV -0.983%E -0.799%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.50%EV -12.45%E -2.77%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -3.40%E -2.83%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -16.16%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-04 07:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -5.01%E -4.24%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 08:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -5.01%E -4.24%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 08:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.79%E -1.47%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.01%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 08:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.79%E -1.47%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.01%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 08:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.21% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.79% | 2.7% | 2026-05-04 08:05 |