Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalibor Svrcina v Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalibor Svrcina (Local)

Prediction 54.33%1.84fair odd
EV -0.578%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.697%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%54.19%54.46%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.8360.61%57.74%57.64%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Visit)

Prediction 45.67%2.19fair odd
EV +0.477%
Edge +0.217%
Kelly +0.397%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%45.81%45.54%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.032.042.2052.08%49.18%49.14%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalibor Svrcina (Local): 54.33%; Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Visit): 45.67%. For Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.477%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.36%E -6.28%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.477%E +0.217%K +0.397%G +0.002%6.1%2026-05-05 10:58
Unibet (UK)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.55%E -3.81%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -2.26%E -1.06%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-05 11:05
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.01%E -3.47%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.09%E -1.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.64%E -4.49%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.09%E -1.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-05 11:04
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.27%E -5.55%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.09%E -1.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 11:05
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.29%E -1.85%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-05 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.47%E -3.14%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 11:05
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -8.73%E -5.20%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-05 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.36%E -6.28%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.36%E -6.28%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-05 11:05
ReBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -3.29%E -1.85%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -6.83%E -3.35%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 10:49
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -0.578%E -0.316%K -0.697%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -7.29%E -3.59%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-05 11:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.578%E -0.316%K -0.697%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 10:58
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.578%E -0.316%K -0.697%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 10:58
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.84%E -2.17%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 11:05
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.92%E -2.81%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-05 11:04
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.01%E -3.47%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 11:05
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -9.27%E -5.55%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -8.66%E -4.33%K -8.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-05 11:05
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.92%E -2.81%K -6.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.94%E -5.61%K -11.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.92%E -2.81%K -6.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.94%E -5.61%K -11.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.92%E -2.81%K -6.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.94%E -5.61%K -11.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-05 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.19%EV -8.18%E -4.84%K -11.86%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.81%EV -12.31%E -6.41%K -13.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-05 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%0.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-05-05 11:05
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%2.2%2026-05-05 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-05-05 11:05
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.47%6.6%2026-05-05 11:05