The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cristian Garin v Jan Choinski

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cristian Garin (Local)

Prediction 89.09%1.12fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -47.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%89.21%88.91%91.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0897.09%94.70%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jan Choinski (Visit)

Prediction 10.91%9.16fair odd
EV +30.65%
Edge +2.56%
Kelly +2.79%
Growth +0.856%

assuming max odds 11.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.28%10.79%11.09%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.988.5011.9714.29%11.14%11.76%8.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cristian Garin (Local): 89.09%; Jan Choinski (Visit): 10.91%. For Jan Choinski (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.16. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 91.72%EV -3.79%E -3.51%K -47.35%G +0.000%11.97I 8.35%NM 8.28%EV +30.65%E +2.56%K +2.79%G +0.856%0.9%2026-05-05 08:55
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.46%E -6.15%K -129.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +20.06%E +1.82%K +2.01%G +0.403%4.3%2026-05-05 08:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.46%E -6.15%K -129.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +20.06%E +1.82%K +2.01%G +0.403%4.3%2026-05-05 08:55
Coral🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -7.35%E -7.07%K -183.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +9.15%E +0.915%K +1.02%G +0.093%6.2%2026-05-05 08:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +3.69%E +0.389%K +0.434%G +0.016%4.9%2026-05-05 08:55
TAB🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -8.24%E -8.00%K -274.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -1.77%E -0.196%K -0.221%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-05 08:54
Fliff🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.41%EV -8.24%E -8.00%K -274.75%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.59%EV -5.04%E -0.579%K -0.655%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-05 08:55
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.79%E -3.51%K -47.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.22%E -0.850%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-05 08:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.68%E -4.37%K -66.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -7.22%E -0.850%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 08:55
theScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -7.22%E -0.850%K -0.963%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 08:55
Bet Victor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.46%E -6.15%K -129.21%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.22%E -0.850%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 08:50
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -12.68%E -1.59%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 08:50
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -18.14%E -2.42%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-05 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -23.60%E -3.37%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-05 08:50
Betsson🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -5.57%E -5.25%K -92.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -23.60%E -3.37%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-05 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-05 08:55
Novig◎1.05I 95.24%NM 89.56%9.01I 11.10%NM 10.44%6.3%2026-05-05 08:55
Smarkets◎1.05I 95.24%NM 87.86%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.14%8.4%2026-05-05 08:55