Language:English
Corentin Moutet v Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Corentin Moutet (Local)
Prediction 55.76%1.79fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.88%55.70%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.701.7562.50%58.93%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit)
Prediction 44.24%2.26fair odd
EV -0.462%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.370%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.12%44.30%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2548.78%46.58%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Corentin Moutet (Local): 55.76%; Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit): 44.24%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.462%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.33%E -2.49%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-08 19:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-08 10:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.53%E -2.04%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 19:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.53%E -2.04%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.53%E -2.04%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 07:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.09%E -2.38%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.77%E -2.71%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 02:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.09%E -2.38%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.77%E -2.71%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.09%E -2.38%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.77%E -2.71%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 21:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.09%E -2.38%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.77%E -2.71%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 21:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 21:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 21:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -6.66%E -3.15%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 21:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 21:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 19:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 19:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.21%E -3.06%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 19:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -0.904%E -0.404%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -0.904%E -0.404%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 19:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.462%E -0.205%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 06:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.462%E -0.205%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 08:46 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -5.33%E -2.49%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.32%E -3.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-08 19:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.44%E -4.48%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 06:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.99%E -4.85%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.99%E -4.85%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.67%E -5.97%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.78%E -6.74%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.67%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 2.3% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |