Language:English
Brandon Nakashima v Roberto Bautista Agut
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brandon Nakashima (Local)
Prediction 63.13%1.58fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%63.16%63.13%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.501.501.5368.97%66.51%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit)
Prediction 36.87%2.71fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.509%
Kelly +0.800%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.84%36.87%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.7541.67%39.12%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 63.13%; Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit): 36.87%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.47%E -5.84%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.40%E +0.509%K +0.800%G +0.011% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -1.18%E -0.441%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.29%E -0.863%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.94%E -3.99%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -2.29%E -0.863%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.39%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.39%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.39%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -3.76%E -1.44%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 13:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -4.87%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -4.87%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.87%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -5.61%E -2.19%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.05%E -2.66%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.68%E -3.10%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.57%E -4.44%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 13:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.57%E -4.44%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.47%E -5.84%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.47%E -5.84%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 13:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -6.34%E -2.50%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.57%E -4.44%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.57%E -4.44%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.47%E -5.84%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.82%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 13:53 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -7.20%E -4.90%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.12%EV -8.19%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.31%E -3.54%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -3.42%E -2.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -11.51%E -4.79%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 13:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.97% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 36.03% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 14:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 14:05 |