Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Kovacevic v Jacob Fearnley

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)

Prediction 72.36%1.38fair odd

EV +70.05%

Edge +29.81%

Kelly +51.89%

Growth +36.35%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.97%66.95%72.49%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.641.302.3578.74%61.09%76.92%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Fearnley (Visit)

Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd

EV -0.502%

Edge -0.139%

Kelly -0.193%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.53%33.05%27.51%59.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.542.743.253.6064.94%36.45%30.77%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 72.36%; Jacob Fearnley (Visit): 27.64%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.38. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +70.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +70.05%E +29.81%K +51.89%G +36.35%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -54.40%E -32.97%K -83.69%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-05-05 10:58
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +70.05%E +29.81%K +51.89%G +36.35%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -54.40%E -32.97%K -83.69%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-05-05 10:58
ReBet🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV +67.88%E +29.26%K +51.42%G +34.91%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -55.50%E -34.47%K -90.99%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-05 10:04
PlayUp🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +66.43%E +28.88%K +51.10%G +33.95%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -55.78%E -34.86%K -92.96%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-05 11:00
GTbets🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV +64.26%E +28.31%K +50.60%G +32.52%	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -53.01%E -31.19%K -75.74%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-05-05 03:34
Everygame🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +62.81%E +27.92%K +50.25%G +31.56%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -56.61%E -36.06%K -99.31%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-05 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV +57.75%E +26.49%K +48.94%G +28.26%	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.82%EV -56.06%E -35.25%K -95.01%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-05 11:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV +55.58%E +25.85%K +48.33%G +26.86%	1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -57.44%E -37.30%K -106.36%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-05-05 10:05
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -2.31%E -1.71%K -6.61%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -18.47%E -6.26%K -9.47%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-05 12:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.97%EV -3.76%E -2.83%K -11.39%G +0.000%	3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -0.778%E -0.217%K -0.301%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-05-05 12:25
FanDuel🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.21%E -3.97%K -16.79%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -11.56%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-05 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.93%E -4.56%K -19.77%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.502%E -0.139%K -0.193%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.93%E -4.56%K -19.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.27%E -0.933%K -1.31%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-05 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.93%E -4.56%K -19.77%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-05 12:25
Coral🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.93%E -4.56%K -19.77%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-05 12:25
Paddy Power🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.93%E -4.56%K -19.77%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.56%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-05 12:25
BoyleSports🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.65%E -5.16%K -22.94%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.27%E -0.933%K -1.31%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-05 12:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.65%E -5.16%K -22.94%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.03%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
Bet Victor🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.65%E -5.16%K -22.94%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.03%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-05 12:23
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.65%E -5.16%K -22.94%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.03%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
TAB🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -7.38%E -5.76%K -26.35%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.03%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-05 12:25
Fliff🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -7.38%E -5.76%K -26.35%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betsson🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -8.10%E -6.38%K -30.00%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-05 12:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-05-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%	4.2%	2026-05-05 12:25
Novig◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%	6.5%	2026-05-05 12:05