L’École des cotes

Alejandro Tabilo v Francisco Cerundolo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-08 14:20 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

50 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alejandro Tabilo (Local)

Prévision 41.32%2.42cote équitable
EV -0.838%
Avantage -0.349%
Kelly -0.599%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.39%41.48%41.18%44.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.292.302.4047.62%43.57%43.48%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Francisco Cerundolo (Visiteur)

Prévision 58.68%1.70cote équitable
EV +2.11%
Avantage +1.21%
Kelly +2.85%
Croissance +0.060%

avec la cote maximale 1.74

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.26%58.52%58.82%60.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.551.611.601.7464.52%62.23%62.50%57.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (50 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -4.98%K -9.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +2.11%E +1.21%K +2.85%G +0.060%3.8%2026-05-08 14:15
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -4.98%K -9.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +2.11%E +1.21%K +2.85%G +0.060%3.8%2026-05-08 14:14
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -6.62%E -2.93%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -0.239%E -0.141%K -0.342%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-08 14:15
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -13.23%E -6.30%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -0.239%E -0.141%K -0.342%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 14:14
Coolbet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -4.14%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.00%E -1.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-08 14:14
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.10%E -4.14%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.00%E -1.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 14:15
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.10%E -4.14%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.00%E -1.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 14:14
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.17%E -1.92%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 14:14
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.10%E -4.14%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.17%E -1.92%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 14:14
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.10%E -4.14%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.17%E -1.92%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 14:15
Bet Right2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -6.62%E -2.93%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -3.76%E -2.29%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 14:14
Marathon Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.76%E -2.29%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 14:09
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.35%E -2.67%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:15
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.90%E -1.24%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 14:15
FanDuel2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.32%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 14:15
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 14:14
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 14:14
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 14:14
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 14:09
Caesars2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.93%E -3.05%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 14:14
SportsBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.14%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.52%E -3.43%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 14:14
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.52%E -3.43%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 14:14
Codere (IT)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.80%E -2.54%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.52%E -3.43%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:01
Unibet (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.32%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -6.11%E -3.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 14:14
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.11%E -3.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:14
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.11%E -3.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:14
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.11%E -3.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:14
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.10%E -4.14%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.11%E -3.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 14:08
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.14%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.69%E -4.21%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:08
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.69%E -4.21%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 14:14
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.28%E -4.61%K -12.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.28%E -4.61%K -12.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:14
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.87%E -5.01%K -13.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 14:15
DraftKings2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -2.08%E -0.877%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.87%E -5.01%K -13.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.87%E -5.01%K -13.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 14:15
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.87%E -5.01%K -13.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 14:14
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:15
Grosvenor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:15
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -0.838%E -0.349%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 14:14
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.90%E -1.24%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 14:14
GTbets2.31I 43.29%NM 40.31%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.69%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 14:08
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.04%E -3.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.46%E -5.42%K -15.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 14:14
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -2.90%E -1.24%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.04%E -5.83%K -16.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 14:14
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -2.90%E -1.24%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.04%E -5.83%K -16.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 14:15
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.97%E -2.16%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.04%E -5.83%K -16.44%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 14:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.42%0.2%2026-05-08 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-08 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-08 14:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-08 14:15
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%1.9%2026-05-08 14:15