Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Jaime Faria

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

44%

56%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)

Prediction 44.41%2.25fair odd

EV +2.14%

Edge +0.929%

Kelly +1.64%

Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.57%43.79%44.59%46.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.952.112.102.3051.28%47.47%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaime Faria (Visit)

Prediction 55.59%1.80fair odd

EV -3.27%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -4.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.28%56.21%55.41%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.681.691.7463.69%59.64%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 44.41%; Jaime Faria (Visit): 55.59%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +2.14%E +0.929%K +1.64%G +0.035%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -12.72%E -8.10%K -22.31%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-04 15:54
Pinnacle🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.08%E -1.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.27%E -1.88%K -4.42%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-04 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.53%E -2.10%K -3.94%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.05%E -3.58%K -8.76%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-04 15:55
Coral🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.53%E -2.10%K -3.94%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.27%E -5.01%K -12.72%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-04 15:55
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.75%E -3.21%K -6.13%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.24%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-04 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.97%E -4.37%K -8.54%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.49%E -3.23%K -7.85%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-04 15:55
NordicBet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.97%E -4.37%K -8.54%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.27%E -5.01%K -12.72%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-04 15:55
Betsson🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.97%E -4.37%K -8.54%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.27%E -5.01%K -12.72%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-04 15:55
Fliff🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -13.41%E -6.88%K -14.11%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -4.94%E -2.89%K -6.95%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-05-04 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%	1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%	1.7%	2026-05-04 15:54