Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vit Kopriva v Rei Sakamoto

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vit Kopriva (Local)

Prediction 67.41%1.48fair odd

EV +1.12%

Edge +0.748%

Kelly +2.24%

Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%67.24%67.28%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.421.441.5076.34%70.38%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rei Sakamoto (Visit)

Prediction 32.59%3.07fair odd

EV +5.90%

Edge +1.82%

Kelly +2.62%

Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.73%32.76%32.72%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.772.743.2540.00%36.11%36.50%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vit Kopriva (Local): 67.41%; Rei Sakamoto (Visit): 32.59%. For Rei Sakamoto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -11.69%E -8.92%K -37.70%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV +5.90%E +1.82%K +2.62%G +0.155%	7.1%	2026-03-03 01:55
Betway🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.99%E -6.66%K -25.69%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +4.27%E +1.34%K +1.94%G +0.083%	5.3%	2026-03-03 01:55
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.99%E -6.66%K -25.69%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -3.87%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-03 01:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.27%E -3.01%K -10.17%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.39%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-03 01:55
NordicBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -7.64%E -5.58%K -20.66%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.39%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-03 01:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV +0.447%E +0.300%K +0.913%G +0.004%	2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV -10.72%E -3.91%K -6.16%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-03 01:50
Bovada🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -0.227%E -0.153%K -0.473%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -12.02%E -4.45%K -7.07%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-03 01:54
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -2.92%E -2.03%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.63%E -5.58%K -9.03%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-03 01:55
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +1.12%E +0.748%K +2.24%G +0.025%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -18.54%E -7.41%K -12.36%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-03 01:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -0.227%E -0.153%K -0.473%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -18.54%E -7.41%K -12.36%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-03 01:55
Fliff🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -2.92%E -2.03%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -18.54%E -7.41%K -12.36%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-03 01:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49%	2.3%	2026-03-03 01:55