Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tristan Schoolkate v Elias Ymer

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tristan Schoolkate (Local)

Prediction 64.94%1.54fair odd

EV +7.15%

Edge +4.33%

Kelly +11.00%

Growth +0.786%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.99%65.16%65.53%73.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.481.461.6578.13%67.71%68.49%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elias Ymer (Visit)

Prediction 35.06%2.85fair odd

EV +22.72%

Edge +6.49%

Kelly +9.09%

Growth +2.06%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.78%34.84%34.47%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.702.503.5044.44%37.03%40.00%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tristan Schoolkate (Local): 64.94%; Elias Ymer (Visit): 35.06%. For Elias Ymer (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -15.58%E -11.99%K -51.94%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +22.72%E +6.49%K +9.09%G +2.06%	5.5%	2026-03-03 23:45
Coral🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -16.88%E -13.19%K -60.29%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +22.72%E +6.49%K +9.09%G +2.06%	6.7%	2026-03-03 23:45
Bovada🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -11.68%E -8.59%K -32.46%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +12.20%E +3.81%K +5.55%G +0.677%	4.8%	2026-03-03 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -11.68%E -8.59%K -32.46%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +8.69%E +2.80%K +4.14%G +0.360%	5.8%	2026-03-03 23:45
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -12.33%E -9.14%K -35.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV +3.43%E +1.16%K +1.76%G +0.060%	8.0%	2026-03-03 23:45
NordicBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -14.28%E -10.82%K -44.63%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV +3.43%E +1.16%K +1.76%G +0.060%	9.7%	2026-03-03 23:45
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.79%E -5.48%K -18.54%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.33%E -1.97%K -3.14%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 23:45
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.59%E -1.73%K -5.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-03 23:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.89%E -2.63%K -8.11%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-03 23:45
Fliff🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -6.49%E -4.51%K -14.75%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-03 23:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV +7.15%E +4.33%K +11.00%G +0.786%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -18.30%E -7.86%K -13.76%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-03-03 23:43
LowVig.ag🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV +7.15%E +4.33%K +11.00%G +0.786%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -18.30%E -7.86%K -13.76%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-03-03 23:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV +7.15%E +4.33%K +11.00%G +0.786%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -18.30%E -7.86%K -13.76%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-03-03 23:37
Everygame🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +3.90%E +2.44%K +6.50%G +0.254%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -19.36%E -8.42%K -14.89%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-03 23:19
GTbets🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV +6.50%E +3.96%K +10.15%G +0.660%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -20.41%E -8.99%K -16.07%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-03 23:33
PlayUp🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV +5.85%E +3.59%K +9.28%G +0.543%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -21.11%E -9.38%K -16.89%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-03 20:26

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%	3.0%	2026-03-03 23:45