Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.65
assuming max odds 2.57
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tristan Schoolkate (Local): 60.18%; Alex Bolt (Visit): 39.82%. For Alex Bolt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -6.72%E -4.34%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.62%EV +2.34%E +0.910%K +1.49%G +0.035% | 3.4% | 2026-03-02 19:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -6.72%E -4.34%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.62%EV +2.34%E +0.910%K +1.49%G +0.035% | 3.4% | 2026-03-02 19:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -6.72%E -4.34%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV +1.15%E +0.451%K +0.744%G +0.009% | 3.9% | 2026-03-02 19:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV +0.349%E +0.138%K +0.229%G +0.001% | 5.0% | 2026-03-02 19:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -8.53%E -5.61%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -0.448%E -0.179%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-02 19:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.44%E -0.995%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-02 19:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.73%E -6.49%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-02 19:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-02 19:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -0.704%E -0.427%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-02 19:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.32%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-02 19:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.704%E -0.427%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-02 19:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -1.91%E -1.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-02 19:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-02 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-02 19:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -5.52%E -3.52%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-02 19:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -5.52%E -3.52%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-02 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -4.32%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -14.39%E -6.69%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-02 19:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-02 19:55 |