The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Thiago Agustin Tirante v Francesco Maestrelli

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)

Prediction 59.34%1.69fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%58.89%59.28%62.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.601.601.6565.79%62.52%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francesco Maestrelli (Visit)

Prediction 40.66%2.46fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.81%41.11%40.72%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.5047.62%43.49%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 59.34%; Francesco Maestrelli (Visit): 40.66%. For Francesco Maestrelli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -9.80%E -6.45%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +1.64%E +0.658%K +1.10%G +0.018%5.8%2026-03-03 20:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.46%E -2.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.389%E -0.159%K -0.268%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-03 20:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.46%E -2.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.389%E -0.159%K -0.268%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-03 20:25
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -1.61%E -0.665%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-03 20:10
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.65%E -3.55%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 20:09
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.46%E -2.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -2.83%E -1.18%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 20:25
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 20:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.65%E -3.55%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 20:30
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.65%E -3.55%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 20:35
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-03 20:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.61%E -5.59%K -15.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -7.30%E -3.20%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 20:11
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.09%E -1.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 20:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.09%E -1.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -12.59%E -5.85%K -10.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 20:35
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -5.65%E -3.55%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -12.59%E -5.85%K -10.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 20:35
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.09%E -1.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -14.62%E -6.96%K -13.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 20:35
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.09%E -1.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -14.62%E -6.96%K -13.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%3.1%2026-03-03 20:36