Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.05
assuming max odds 2.15
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local): 51.20%; Chun-Hsin Tseng (Visit): 48.80%. For Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.96%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +4.96%E +2.42%K +4.72%G +0.234% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -12.16%E -6.75%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-04 00:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +2.40%E +1.20%K +2.40%G +0.057% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -14.60%E -8.34%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 00:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.26%E -2.28%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -4.77%E -2.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -2.88%E -1.45%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.28%E -2.86%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.86%E -1.96%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 00:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.86%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.28%E -2.86%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 00:08 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.28%E -2.86%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.72%E -5.25%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.28%E -2.86%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.72%E -5.25%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -7.33%E -4.05%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -0.444%E -0.218%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-04 00:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -7.84%E -4.36%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -3.37%E -1.70%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.38%E -5.30%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -10.40%E -5.94%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV +2.00%E +0.955%K +1.83%G +0.037% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 00:12 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -12.96%E -7.63%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -14.50%E -8.68%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -15.52%E -9.41%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +4.92%E +2.29%K +4.28%G +0.211% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58% | 2.0% | 2026-03-04 00:20 |