The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nicolas Jarry v Francesco Maestrelli

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nicolas Jarry (Local)

Prediction 43.59%2.29fair odd
EV +2.43%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.57%43.42%43.69%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.152.3548.78%45.93%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francesco Maestrelli (Visit)

Prediction 56.41%1.77fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%56.58%56.31%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.671.7363.69%60.33%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Jarry (Local): 43.59%; Francesco Maestrelli (Visit): 56.41%. For Nicolas Jarry (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +2.43%E +1.03%K +1.80%G +0.044%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -9.17%E -5.70%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-02 18:18
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +0.246%E +0.107%K +0.190%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -11.43%E -7.28%K -20.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 18:18
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.625%E -0.274%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -5.22%E -3.11%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-02 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.625%E -0.274%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -5.22%E -3.11%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-02 18:09
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -0.625%E -0.274%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -7.48%E -4.56%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-02 18:07
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.24%E -1.46%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.10%E -2.41%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-02 18:10
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.92%E -4.19%K -10.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-02 18:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.66%E -2.76%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-02 18:19
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.79%E -3.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-02 18:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -9.74%E -6.09%K -16.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -9.74%E -6.09%K -16.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 18:19
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.40%E -1.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-02 18:19
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.79%E -3.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 18:20
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.79%E -3.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 18:19
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.61%E -5.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-02 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.65%E -5.20%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.40%E -1.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-02 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -10.65%E -5.20%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.79%E -3.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-02 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-03-02 18:20